According to Tables I and 2 as well as in Figures 5 and 6, the trends have already been
clear. Before 1985 or so, though the issues of population ageing had already been debated
hotly, the actual proceeding of population ageing was rather slow and the percentage of
the population 65 years and over is hardly beyond 10 percent. However, after 1985, the
momenturn has been gathering and according to the population projections shown in Table 2
and Figure 5, the population ageing is expected to proceed at an unprecedented speed and
by the year 2025 the percentage of the aged is projected to be more than 25 percent.
Table 3 shows international comparison of the speed of population ageing among seven
industrialized countries with respect to the year attained or expected to attain the 7, 10
and 14 percent level in terms of the proportion of the aged. Particularly, the last column
indicates number of years required to shift from 7 percent to 14 percent. As can be noted
in this column, the rapidity of population ageing in Japan is very impressive. The number
of years expected to spend for moving from 7 to 14 percent would take only 25 years in
Japan and is distinctively shorter than any other selected developed countries. When the
speed of ageing is rapid, its social and economic impacts are much greater than otherwise
in the situation where the change takes place rather showly. Hence, people and society's
response to those demographic changes must be more difficult in Japan, requiring swift
adjustment to those changes and restructuring its institutional setup and infrastructure.
Table 3. Speed of Population Ageing in Selected Developed Countries
Country
Years attaining the specified percentage of
the aged among the total population
7%
10%
14%
Number of years required to shift from 7% to 14% in terms
of proportion aged
Japan
1970
1985
1995
25
France
1865
1935
1995
130
Germany
1930
1955
1975
45
Sweden
1890
1950
1975
85
Switzerland
1935
1960
1985
50
United Kingdom
1930
1950
1980
50
U.S.A.
1945
1975
2015
60
Source: Before 1940: United Nations, The Aging Of Population and its Economicand Social
Implication.Population Studies, No.26, New York, 1956.
After 1940: United Nations, The Sex and Age Distribution of World Population: 1994 New
York, 1995.
